【 depth 】 fully read the new energy car industry: become the focal point
OFweek new energy automobile network - the national development and reform commission, the ministry issued the opinions of the perfect car investment project management, ban approved new fuel automobile production enterprise investment project, traditional automobile enterprises to expand the traditional fuel vehicles are strictly control capacity. Meanwhile, we will standardize the investment projects of new energy vehicles, vigorously promote the coordinated development of power batteries and other industrial chains, and guide the rational investment of enterprises and social capital. I think the car is the core of manufacturing, sustained growth of China's automobile consumption with powerful endogenous power, new energy vehicles is the core of promoting economic growth around the direction, thus improve the car at the heart of the investment project management is still a new energy car. I always think of new energy vehicles should be wide into the bat, but wide into is also want to have a reasonable standard, the perfect car the opinions of the investment project management is beneficial to inhibit local new energy investment impulse, realize the stable and orderly development of new energy vehicles.
1. The automobile industry is the core of industry
The general goal of the long-term development plan of the automobile industry is to build a strong country. The specific goal is to realize the safety and control of the whole industry chain, the basic formation of new industrial ecology and the significant improvement of green development level. I think the core is to achieve the breakthrough of Chinese cars through the continuous breakthrough of the independent brand, and drive the improvement of the whole manufacturing system.
The automobile industry is a manufacturing industry with high output value, high profit, and leading mobile industry. From the table above shows, performance of the automobile industry in 2017 is not strong, but the sales revenue is the status of manufacturing Qian Sanjiang, and profit is the biggest industry, and tax advantages of a consumption tax and other taxes, governments everywhere to auto industry the importance of strong, for the car project is inevitable. The national ministries are also under intense pressure from local governments to invest in the industry.
2. Sales of fuel trucks will soon peak
With the new energy vehicle technology breakthrough, gradually the cost of new energy vehicle and energy efficiency advantages will gradually reflect, and Yang energy, wind energy and other clean energy to day electric advantages gradually obvious. I think that in the next five years or so traditional fuel vehicles will face the bottleneck of sales peak, and the future increment must be pure electric, hydrogen energy and plug-in hybrid and other products. The capacity of traditional car must be challenged by the change of market demand.
In 2017, there is a big multiplier phenomenon, and the car market in this century has basically been driven by passenger cars. Whether it was the consumer disruption of the financial crisis in 2008 or the strong investment in 2010, there was no 17 years of growth in commercial vehicles that was much higher than that of passenger cars.
China's car market is the world's sustainable car market. The market for China's light car market is weak in 2017, but the potential for development is still huge, and only China's car market has the potential for sustainable development in the world's largest automotive industry. China's light vehicles have the potential to continue to rise from 27 million to 50 million a year over the next 20 years.
And auto market in the developed countries in the range, starting in 2010 the U.S. auto market to continuous decline for many years, started seven years of continuous growth, in 2016 to 17.54 million vehicles hit record levels. This year's decline in the us car market, which is also a big trend in the next few years, has led to a further increase in China's overall international and incremental status.
3. The strength of merger and reorganization
The approval of new enterprises for traditional vehicles has basically stopped, and the expansion capacity cannot be carried out smoothly. In particular, the expansion capacity of joint ventures is very difficult.
Some provinces are unable to build a new vehicle production base. Policy: new traditional fuel vehicle capacity should be construction in two car of the year on the capacity utilization rate are higher than the industry average of provinces (according to the industry design specifications, production capacity according to the calculation, twice a day, 250 days a year class.. Encourage car region with low capacity utilization rate and increasing merger and reorganization of enterprises, speed up technological progress, enhance market competitiveness, and constantly improve the level of existing capacity utilisation. Encourage mergers and reorganization is a traditional car is the main approach to improve productivity, capacity utilization is low expansion project of the province is not new car companies.
The joint venture is almost impossible to expand capacity. The existing automobile enterprises applying for construction to expand the investment project of traditional fuel automobile production capacity should meet the following conditions: the utilization ratio of the last two years is higher than the average industry average; Last year, new energy vehicles accounted for more than the industry average; The annual expenditure on r&d expenses accounted for more than 3% of the main business income. The product is competitive in the international market. Existing passenger car companies to apply for construction to expand the traditional fuel automobile production capacity investment projects, in addition to meet the above conditions, corporate average fuel consumption should also meet the requirements of national standards and relevant regulations.
4. The new energy index is actually the weathervane of capacity adjustment
The development of new energy vehicles should be faster than we had expected, with the breakthrough in the field of battery, fuel limit increase production such as side pressure, and intelligent electric, the changes are also accelerated the development of the travel. Whether it is Google or apple, and even tesla and other new power companies, it is fast moving forward with the change in car consumption. We are also hoping for a breakthrough in the new energy vehicles. Ministry of industry and leading industry long-term development planning, which made clear in 2020, the annual output will reach 2 million cars in new energy, by 2025, the new energy car sales accounted for more than 20% of total sales.
The goal of the country to reach two million new energy vehicles by 2020 is actually a specific indicator of total energy conversion. From 500,000 in 2016 to 2 million in 2020, the annual increase in the range of 300,000 to 600,000 is also a change in our capacity structure. The number of cars in 2016 is 28 million, which is the concept of 2750 + 50. According to the automobile industry index of medium and long-term development planning easy to draw a traditional vehicle sales growth slowed sharply in the future, even the concept of the likely peaked in 2023, this is also an important opportunity for development of new energy vehicles.
5. Strengthen the industrial aggregation effect of beijing-tianjin-hebei region
Promote the production capacity to the industrial base of solid, complete supporting system, competitive advantage obvious regional agglomeration. Automobile, steel, mobile phone production scale characteristics. The industrial layout of south China, north China, east China and southwest is more concentrated. The battery capacity layout is not listed here. From the production capacity layout, the production capacity of faw, faw, saic, gac and chang 'an is more obvious in the local area. In terms of steel layout, the steel layout in hebei and jiangsu and tianjin is huge. From mobile phone capacity, guangdong province is a lone star, the mobile phone assembly in henan and chongqing is larger.
The consideration of the automobile production capacity planning should be the layout of the industrial chain, which is the rational distribution of the car's capacity development for the distribution of batteries, vehicles and steel.